## Decision Theory and Phase Sample Essay

?MethodologyThe determination analysis that we did encompassed a figure of different facets. First we had to depict what the optimum determination would be based on the chances and the final payments. For this.

we designed a determination tree theoretical account to reflect the determinations that we to be made at each measure. moreover. the events that are out of control of the company are represented by opportunity nodes. After finishing the lineation of the theoretical account. we proceeded to “foldback” the tree to happen out which determination would give us the highest Expected Monetary Value ( EMV ) calculated utilizing the undermentioned expression: EMV = PAMA + PBMB ( Dont worry about the data format yet…we will make that subdivision subsequently )Where:PA = Probability of event AngstromPB = Probability of event BMA = Payoff of event AngstromMB = Payoff of event B

Based on this analysis.

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we have can do a determination that will maximise our long term expected pecuniary value. Further. the determination tree allows the user to visualise the determination results and the associated likely goons involved with each determination.( Added the Following Section )The construct of hazard was an of import decision of the determination tree.

After treatment. we contacted the confer withing house of Foresight Consulting to assist pull off this hazard. They informed us that they have a method to find the result of Phase I and Phase II before really carry oning these expriements. nevertheless. they did non cite a monetary value.

To farther progress this analysis. we calculated the Expected Value of Perfect Information ( EVPI ) . This figure tells Merck the upper limit they should be willing for Foresight’s services.
Another method of scrutiny was to see a sensitiveness analysis. We used the bing determination tree theoretical account and applied a Monte Carlo simulation on some of the variables. The Monte Carlo simulation is used in stochastic and nondeterministic Fieldss by utilizing a pseudorandom algorithm to cipher a prognosis cell. A sum of three simulations were run.

In the first simulation we varied costs associated of each Phase and the final payments of successful drug release. For the 2nd simulation we varied the chances attach toing each successful result. And the 3rd simulation was a combination of the last two where we varied both the dollar sums and the chances associated with each result. For each of the simulations we were given a mean and standard divergence for the prognosis cell. Furthermore. we were able to execute a sensitiveness analysis that shows which variable affects the prognosis cell the most. Based on these sensitiveness Numberss we came up with ways so that Merck can command their hazards and avoid losing excessively much money.?Analysis and Key Findings( Necessitate a passage paragraph )?Decision TreeExpected Monetary ValueTwo possible options were examined: to purchase the patent for KL-798 or non to purchase.

If the drug is purchased and Merck follows through with the research so the Expected Monetary Value of this option would be a loss of \$ 260 000. 00. This Standard is calculated utilizing the determination tree in Appendix A Decision Tree Diagram on page ZZ ( When Referencing to the appendix we need to do certain we mention the page figure ) .

The Decision tree shows what determination should be made given the fortunes. First.

presuming that Merck will continue with the purchase of KL-798. Merck will hold to do a pick as to whether to finish Phase I. which merely has 60 % opportunity of success and will be 5Million dollars. If they pass stage I.

harmonizing to the EMV standard. it would be advisable to go on on to phase II which has a figure of different results. First. there is a opportunity that they could bring around fleshiness merely. cholesterin merely. or both cholesterin and fleshiness.If phase II gives an indicant that it cures fleshiness. so Merck should go on on with Phase III and seek FDA blessing.

If phase II gives an indicant of cholesterin success so Merck would be advised non to go on with stage III. This is for two grounds. foremost. a cholesterol drug will non do any money for the company. furthermore. Merck already has Zocor which is a drug proven to hold inauspicious effects on the cholesterin degree in human organic structure.

In both of these instances Phase III will be 140Million.Phase II demoing marks that it can bring forth consequences that indicate it is a possible remedy for both fleshiness and cholesterin. Surprisingly this result is less preferable so being a remedy for fleshiness merely. because go oning to phase III will necessitate a significantly larger investing of 140Million. Phase III can take to FDA blessing of the undermentioned drugs. fleshiness.

cholesterin. or both a cholesterin and obesity drug. If FDA blessing is granted so Merck should let go of the drug. except in the instance of cholesterin merely due to the fact Merck already has a similar drug.( I am non certain if we need all these Numberss here.

It sort of makes it excessively confounding to read ) If Phase 1 consequences are completed. so Merck would hold a 60 per centum opportunity to obtain a return of \$ 22. 9Milion dollars and a 40 per centum opportunity of fring 35Million. Furthermore. favourable Phase 1 consequences demoing a positive consequence of KL- 798 on the fleshiness of people could take to a 10 per centum opportunity of obtaining a return of \$ 197. 5Million.

A loss of \$ 75Million dollars is associated entirely with high cholesterin intervention ; at the same time with 30 percent chance of \$ 160. 5Million in net incomes associated with the intervention of both diseases. And.

there is besides 50 percent chance of fring 75Million if drug proving fails to supply any dependable consequences.At this phase when Phase 2 consequences show positive consequence of KL 798 on the intervention of High Cholesterol level economic efficiency would forestall Merck from prosecuting proving any farther. Another ground to halt research on KL-798 at this phase lies with the being of the Zocor. drug with proved inauspicious effects on the cholesterin degree in human organic structure. This merchandise is already in the market. accordingly. Merck & A ; Co is free of duty to make another drug despite the loss.

Phase 3 of the testing would be based on successful findings of the Phase 2. when KL-798 provides grounds for effectual intervention of fleshiness or both diseases. First happening could take to a 75 per centum opportunity of obtaining positive return of \$ 305Million. and 25 per centum of loss of \$ 125Million if FDA does non allow blessing to the drug.Second consequence. due to a higher research cost of 140 million. provides smaller positive returns with 60 and 15 per centum chance for additions of 295million and 215 million correspondingly. However.

losingss associated with this option are besides great: 10 per centum opportunity of losing 165Million and 15 per centum opportunity of negative \$ 215 million.The hazard of this ventures is besides great. Merely three out of the 10 possible results are positive and significant in net incomes. Initial proving in Phase 1 grants a 60 per centum opportunity of success and histories to overall 18 per centum opportunity of obtaining a return after all 3 Phases of proving and blessing are completed. Profitable investing is possible merely if KL- 798 trials positive as a drug for fleshiness or fleshiness and high cholesterin at the same time.Furthermore. harmonizing to Merck’s historical path record.

in the pharmaceutical industry. merely 5 out of 16 new merchandises would go a success ( Citation Needed ) . Therefore. EMV and Pay Off computations could go capable to accommodation for this coefficient of market return.

?Expected Value of Perfect InformationResearch offered by Foresight Consulting can foretell the result of Phase I and Phase II efficaciously extinguishing the uncertainties Phase I and Phase II and therefore cut downing hazard hazard. However the inquiries becomes. how much should Merck be willing to pay for this service. To find the maximal sum Merck will pay. Expected Value of Perfect Information ( EVPI ) is calculated. Given perfect information.

there are four possible consequences to Foresights Consulting research and the corresponding chance is the joint chance of consequence in Phase I and ensue in Phase II. For illustration
Pr [ Pass Phase I and Phase II ( Obesity ) ] = Pr [ Pass Phase I ] * Pr [ Phase II ( Obesity ) ]If Merck contracts the research by foresight consulting. Merck will cognize the consequence of Phase I and Phase II before it makes the determination of buying the rights to KL-798. Therefore it will cognize if it wants to purchase Kl-798 and behavior Phase I and Phase II at the same time. The standard for doing determination is to take the way with higher EMV. Using the computation listed in methodological analysis.

the perfect information 1 has an expected value of 40. 72 million. The EMV without perfect information is -0. 26 million. So EVPI peers the difference of the two figure 41Million ( 40. 72- ( -0. 26 ) ) .

which is the maximal sum that is deserving paying for any information about the consequences of Phase I and Phase II. If Foresight Consulting charges a cost higher than that. Merck should decline to carry on the research.?Sensitivity Analysis ( I need to repair the images.

which I will make tomorrow. )A sensitiveness analysis is a great manner to find the hardiness of the analytical determination. For our probe we performed a Monte Carlo Simulation utilizing Crystal Ball 7. Basically Crystal Ball allowed us to choose which variables we want to fluctuate harmonizing to certain statistical regulations.

We ran this simulation a sum of 10 thousand times under three different conditions. For the first status. we wanted to see what the consequence of changing costs of finishing each stage and the final payment for a successful selling of the drug. Each variable was assumed to be usually distributed with a average equal to the figure stated in the instance. and the standard divergence to be equal to 10 % of the mean.

( For examples the ball sum payment would hold a mean of -30Million and standard divergence of 3Million ) .We found. that under these premises. the mean expected pecuniary return for buying the drug to be -0. 18Million. However. this figure comes at a high variableness.

with the standard divergence equal to 7. 51. Therefore we can be 95 % confident that if we purchase the drug. we will hold an EMV between -14. 81 and 14.

45. Furthermore. as shown Figure 1. the Payoff for bring arounding both diseases has the greatest affect on the overall EMV accounting for 54. 1 % of the fluctuation.

??Conclusion
( I was believing that possibly we should alter this rubric to Recommendations ) Findingss of this study utilized Tree Diagram as a determination doing tool and abbreviated on the Expected Monetary Value standard. Given the restrictions of the information and techniques. Merck & A ; Co is expected to lose 260Million dollars if it proceeds with the purchase of the KL- 798. However.

presuming the fact that the vision statement of the laminitiss of the company would steer a determination devising procedure. Merck & A ; Co will finish a purchase of the patent. Estimated chances of success in three different stages of the proving provide that the highest return should be expected if KL-798 proves its efficaciousness in intervention of fleshiness entirely.Net incomes are expected to make 305Million dollars for an investing of 125 million. Second highest figure in gross revenues would be generated upon success in intervention of high cholesterin degree and fleshiness at the same time. 295Million with the 60 per centum opportunity upon success in Phase 2 followed by indistinguishable findings in Phase with joint chance of 10. 8 [ [ # _msocom_1| ] ] . Third positive outcome \$ 215 million in grosss is possible with the chance of 2.

7 per centum. if KL- 798 indicates intervention of fleshiness in Phase 3. given positive intervention of both diseases in Phase 2. However. a high grade of hazard is involved.

Sensitivity analysis evaluates possible results due to variance in the chance steps. Decision analysis is most reliable on the initial success in Phase 1. Expected value of perfect Information provides for the cost of a more dependable and consistent informations about chance of results.

This sum is estimated to be \$ 41 million

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