Summary BEA staff paper: cyclical adjustment of the federal budget and federal debt: detailed methodology and estimates Essay

This paper describes the models that BEA uses to estimate thecyclically adjusted Federal budget and inflation-induced changes in thecyclically adjusted budget. The quarterly data for the variables in themodels and the regression equations underlying the coefficients in themodels are presented. The paper also discusses the cyclical adjustmentof Federal debt and shows some results.

Finally, the paper presents somesimplified estimation procedures that approximate the results of thecomplete models, but have much more limited data requirements. This paper, which is No. 40 in the BEA Staff Paper series, may beordered from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S.

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Government PrintingOffice, Washington, DC 20402. The telephone number is (202) 783-3238.The stock number is 003-010-00126-7; price, $7.50. A supplement to thestaff aper provides revision and updates of the quarterly data from thefirst quarter of 1981 to the second quarter of 1984. The supplement isavailable upon request from the Government Division (BE-57), Bureau ofEconomic Analysis, U.

S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.


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